PR Log (Press Release) –
Feb 10, 2010 – The Q110 BMI Philippines Retail Report predicts that the country's retail sales will grow from just over US$23bn in 2009 to more than US$40bn by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, an expanding population (especially in urban areas), the rise in consumer spending and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in the Philippines' retail sales. The Philippines' nominal GDP was US$157.19bn in 2009. Average annual GDP growth of 3.6% is predicted by BMI through to 2014. With the population expected to increase from an estimated 91.4mn in 2009 to 100.1mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 63% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$2,796. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,767 in 2009 to US$2,397 by 2014. Although salaries in the Philippines remain low - BMI estimates the 2009 average annual wage at US$2,000 - household incomes are substantially bolstered by contributions from family members working overseas. Overseas remittances were a record US$16.4bn in 2008, according to the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP), and with the bulk going into consumption rather than investments the retail industry is one of the beneficiaries. In urban areas in particular, there are also increasing numbers of dual income, middle class families and young professionals who are boosting retail sales. The country's growing youth population represents a key element of future retail spending. According to UN data, 36.7% of the Philippine population in 2005 was in the 20-44 age range. This is forecast to increase to nearly 39% by 2015. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as economically active was 60.9% in 2005 and should rise to almost 63% by 2015. The urban population, which accounted for 62.6% of the total in 2005, is predicted to reach nearly 70% by 2015. About 50% of the country's total retail sales are concentrated in Manila metropolitan area. Consumer electronics sales were worth an estimated US$3.29bn in 2009, according to BMI data, and are forecast to rise by 47% to US$4.84bn towards the end of the forecast period. Sales of over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products are predicted to increase from US$0.82bn in 2009 to US$1.38bn by 2014, a rise of 68.5%. Automotives sales should increase by 16%, from US$0.98bn in 2009 to US$1.14bn before the end of the forecast period. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2009 were an estimated US$2.26trn. China and India alone in 2009 accounted for more than 93% of regional retail sales, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is still expected to exceed 91%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2009-2014 is put by BMI at 79%, or an annual average 14%. The Philippines should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Malaysia. For the Philippines, the estimated 2009 market share of 1.0% is expected to increase to 1.8% by 2014.
For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/48950_philippines_retail_repo ...
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